Publication

The prediction of the breakdown of social order is both a considerable academic challenge and a major development concern. This essay argues that recent advances in the social sciences enable the policy community to meet these challenges. Against recurrent scepticism, the authors argue that the prediction of political stability is a must and that the three main approaches used to assess these risks – the structural, the dynamic and the game-theoretic approaches – supplement each other in the task of predicting such extreme events like state failure.