Publication

When does nuclear counterproliferation succeed? When does it lead to preventive war? We argue that the answers to these questions hinge on the effect of nuclearization on the balance of power relative to the cost of preventive war. When it is low, threats of preventive war are not credible; proliferation continues apace and peace prevails. Such was the case during the Cold War. When it is high, threats of preventive war are credible, slowing down the rate of proliferation. At the same time, since the decision to proliferate is not perfectly observable, there is a higher likelihood of mistaken preventive wars. This characterizes the post Cold War.