Publication

This paper presents new approaches to forecasting and conceptualizing the risk of conflict, and looks at what they could mean for the IEP’s Global Peace Index (GPI). More specifically, the two risk models outlined are 1) the ´IEP Like-Country Model´, which uses historic data to estimate the likelihood of a country either improving or deteriorating in peacefulness; and 2) the ´IEP Positive Peace Deficit Model´, which provides a ranked list of countries most at-risk of deteriorating in peacefulness. The authors also discuss how the IEP has tested these models for accuracy, results produced by the models and key challenges involved in risk assessment and management.