Publication

This brief examines the political and security situation in Nigeria prior to the country's 2015 presidential elections. The author contends that it seems likely that President Goodluck Jonathan and his People’s Democratic Party (PDP) will secure a new term in the elections, but that the ongoing war with jihadist group Boko Haram could mean that the elections will be disputed and violent. The author also discusses the limited capabilities of Nigeria's military; examines whether Chad could join the conflict against Boko Haram; and looks at the prospects for negotiations with the group.