Publication

This briefing looks at the ongoing debate over whether outside powers should attack the incipient Libyan branch of the so-called Islamic State (IS). The text’s author specifically looks at 1) the possible reasons for such a confrontation and their likely consequences, and 2) the motives of IS and its various adversaries in Libya. He concludes that although it would not be difficult to displace IS from the central part of the country, the attacks could rally part of the local population to the group’s cause, shift the militants to other parts of Libya or the Sahel-Sahara, and would probably exacerbate the current conflict between armed factions for the control of the Libyan state and its resources.