Publication

This paper researches the extent to which elite opinion about public policy shapes and potentially manipulates public opinion. It proposes an identification strategy for estimating the causal effect of elite messages on public support for European integration employing changes in political institutions as instrumental variables. The authors find that more negative elite messages about European integration do indeed decrease public support for Europe, and this effect does not seem to vary for more politically aware individuals. They also find no mainstreaming effect in which political awareness increases support for Europe when elites have a favorable consensus on the benefits of integration.