Publication

This paper develops a model of electoral competition in which two parties compete for votes among three groups of voters. The authors find that holding primary elections among an ideologically friendly voter subset causes politicians to cater to extreme groups rather than a moderate group with many swing voters. The amount promised to extreme groups is decreasing in the ideological polarization of those groups, while each party's probability of victory is increasing in the size and extremity of its favored group. They also find that an incumbency advantage reduces the amount promised to extremists and therefore benefits moderates.