ETH Industry Day: Meet the expert for an industry net zero future

Tom Kober has been working on modelling energy systems for more than 15 years. He leads the Energy Economics research group at the PSI and is part of the team of Professor Russell McKenna. McKenna has recently been called to Zurich from Aberdeen, he is an expert in decentralised multi-energy systems both at ETH Zurich and at PSI. All renowned Swiss research institutions are involved in the SCCERs, the Swiss Competence Centers for Energy Research. All eight of them have probed jointly, how the energy sector and Swiss industries might achieve net zero CO2 emissions by 2050.

Bringing energy and industry emissions down to zero by 2050 is possible

Emissions from the energy sector and industrial processes correspond to approximately 80% of total CO2 emissions in Switzerland. The result of the study in short: bringing these emissions down to zero requires a big effort, but it is technically possible. In the main net zero scenario, power production would have to increase by about one-fifth by 2050. Even with the Swiss nuclear power plants decommissioned by 2045, this could be achieved by doubling the installation of solar systems each decade and employing further technologies such as wind, cogeneration of heat and power, hydrogen fuel cells and storage technologies.

Concerning the real estate industry, the use of heat pumps in service and living areas would have to be significantly accelerated, so that by 2050 they could cover almost three-quarters of the demand for heating and hot water. At the same time, it would be necessary to achieve significant energy savings through accelerated renovation of residential buildings. Engineers know that the efficiency of thermal processes in particular is continuously improving – e.g., by technological advancements and optimised design. These efficiency gains could keep the electricity demand in buildings by heating and hot water supply almost constant until 2050.

PSI’s modelling of pathways towards carbon neutrality reveals that some amount of carbon capture (CCS) is necessary. For the year 2050, almost 9 million tonnes of CO2 (equivalent to about 20% of current CO2 emissions) would need to be captured in Switzerland – especially to avoid CO2 emissions associated with industrial production processes and high-temperature applications.

Good news for the industry – net zero costs are manageable

Tom Kober and his fellow researchers also estimated the costs. “For the net zero scenario, the costs amount to about 330 CHF per person per year for the period 2020 to 2050,” Kober says. These costs would come on top of the costs that the researchers have calculated for a moderate climate scenario arriving at a 40% CO2 emission reduction compared to 1990. High costs are to be expected even after 2050 to remain at zero emissions. The costs are difficult to estimate because many components play a role. For the estimation, the researchers rated which resources would be available, how technologies would evolve, how well they would be accepted and integrated into the market, and to what extent energy would need to be generated domestically for sufficient supply security.

For different scenarios which represent different energy markets and policy settings, Kober and his team approximate the average costs between 200 and 860 CHF per capita per annum for the period 2020 to 2050.

Join us at ETH Industry Day to meet Russell McKenna and Tom Kober and discuss this outlook and the impact on your company and your wider industry sector with them.

ETH Industry Day 2022: Registration and full programme