Small steps on the road to peace

Absence of sanctions

In many conflict situ­ations, contact can only be established through an independent third party. And though international organisations cannot enforce peace, they still provide a vital platform for helping to thaw frozen relations. “One of the central goals of diplomacy is to build and stabilise trust,” says Mason. Diplomatic rituals – such as determining who first enters a room or delivers a speech – may seem odd at times, but they serve an important purpose. “These rules provide a dependable framework and thereby build trust,” he explains. Mason also argues for strengthening institutions such as the UN. This, he says, would increase their acceptance among all states and enable them to function more effectively, helping to generate trust. Conversely, factors that under­mine trust include misunderstandings, unpredictability and threatening behaviour.

However, diplomatic contact and open channels of communication are only part of the equation. “Ultimately, nations build trust by honouring their agreements,” Mason emphasises. Concrete steps toward disarmament, for example, are a tangible way for nations to demonstrate this commitment.

Of course, trust is not confined to the political or military realm; it can also be fostered through economic, social and cultural collaboration. It was this idea that led to the establishment in the 1950s of the European Economic Community (EEC), which played a pivotal role in maintaining peace across Europe over the following decades.

Increasing conflict

“However, the current climate is very much one of strained international relations,” says Mason. The end of the Cold War was a time of optimism when peace seemed more likely, he explains, but geopolitical polarisation, economic and environmental crises, and weakened inter­national institutions currently characterise our global context.

Conflict researcher Andreas Juon confirms this analysis. Citing global conflict data, he explains how civil wars and interstate conflicts declined after the Cold War ended in 1989 but have surged since 2010. Unsurprisingly, says Juon, this cor­responds to developments in many nations that have made conflict more likely: an increasing exclusion of minorities from political power, democratic backsliding into autocratic rule by a host of countries, and the rise of nationalist governance. Conversely, research by Juon’s team indicates that sharing political power with minorities or granting them autonomy leads to fewer conflicts.

Juon worries that the risk of international conflict will continue to increase – or at least remain high – for some time to come. Yet a glimmer of hope remains: global surveys are now showing an increase in public support for liberal democracy as a form of government as well as growing advocacy for minority rights.

The key takeaway is that mutual trust on a global scale requires constant effort, because it takes years to build, but only seconds to break. That’s why trust-building measures are crucial for promoting peace. Mason and his team have been studying how these can be primed for success. “The most important thing is to start with small steps,” Mason emphasises. For example, efforts to negotiate an agreement between Russia and Ukraine that would prevent attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure have so far proved fruitless. Yet multiple prisoner exchanges have taken place, showing there’s still enough mutual trust for less ambitious steps. “The best way to establish trust is by building on what’s already there – ideally with both parties contributing equally,” Mason concludes.