Climate change alone does not cause mass migration

What is clear, however, is that climate change is already jeopardising the livelihoods of millions of people around the world.¹ Impacts such as droughts, rising sea levels or extreme weather events will make many of them leave their homes one day and start afresh elsewhere.

An outlook that is causing political controversy in the Global North: the spectre of excessive climate migration is regularly circulating in the media. There are fears in many places that there will be a massive rush of "climate refugees" to the North.

So, the central question is: where do people go when they flee climate change?

A real-world laboratory for climate migration

For the past five years, we have been looking for answers to this question in a Swiss National Science Foundation funded research project in Bangladesh, which is particularly hard hit by climate change.² Whether it is due to rising sea levels and the salinisation of groundwater or cyclones and increasingly heavy monsoon rains – in Bangladesh, as if under a burning glass, we can already see what Europe can expect in the years to come: the environment is changing rapidly and is threatening our livelihoods.

This can be impressively observed on the Jamuna River. While the water meanders majestically through the landscape in the dry season, something monstrous happens in the rainy season: the river swells dramatically and tears at the sandy soils of its steeply sloping banks. Farmland and settlement areas break off piece by piece, houses and entire villages disappear in the floods.

Since 2021, we have been accompanying 1700 families, all of whom were still living on the banks of the Jamuna River at the time. During our most recent visit in spring 2024, we observed that the river had eroded more than 500 metres inland in some places, destroying thousands of homes. Together with local students, I did some detective work for my doctoral thesis to track down all the participants who had to leave their homes.³ What I learnt in the process touched me deeply on a human level – and often surprised me scientifically.

Nothing like leaving

We had expected people to turn their backs on this land-devouring force as quickly as possible - but the opposite is the case: those affected remain surprisingly loyal to the river. Even those who have already lost their homes several times usually want to stay in their village at all costs. For many, moving is only a last resort.

There are many reasons for this. Some still have a piece of land nearby that they cultivate. Others are held back by social ties such as family and friends. What impressed me the most was people's optimism and willingness to help. Even if the ground is eroding under their feet, they help to dismantle their neighbour's house, which is even closer to the abyss, and rebuild it a few metres inland. 

Our results confirm what other studies have already suggested: of all the people who have had to leave their village due to erosion, most have only shifted a few kilometres away. Some have moved to the capital Dhaka. But only very few have left Bangladesh. Their main motivation was not climate change – but the hope of finding a better job abroad.

We have documented our research on climate-induced migration in Bangladesh in a video. Last week, I presented the video together with our findings at the UN Climate Change Conference COP29 in Azerbaijan.

My message to the delegations: climate migration is not a distant future scenario, but already a bitter reality for millions of people today. However, they hardly ever flee across national borders to other countries.

A clarifying look at climate migration

In my view, the current discourse about climate migration is misguided: it is factually wrong, politically dangerous and morally reprehensible. The much-touted "climate migration wave" is based on thin foundations. Corresponding media reports are usually based on dubious studies that simply assume all potentially climate-affected people in a region to become international climate migrants, but they neglect internal migration and "stay and adapt" approaches.

Such exaggerated forecasts are being misused by populist forces in Europe and the USA to fuel fears of mass migration and create an anti-immigrant atmosphere.

Finally, the Global North fails to recognise its responsibility when it points to climate change as the main cause of migration to Europe and the USA.

People have always migrated to find better living conditions elsewhere – and not just since the onset of climate change. However, climate change exacerbates existing economic inequalities, which are the real driver behind international migration patterns.

Anyone who is seriously concerned about increasing migration to Europe should therefore focus on reducing these inequalities. This would also best serve the people on the ground.